And now, the moment you've all been waiting for (or not), our very own TGS 2008 predictions! Hooray!As with our E3 predictions, we have narrowed our analyses, intuitions, hunches, guesses, hopes, and outright dreams down to 10 entries, each less probable than the last. Here's how each prediction measures up in terms of possibility:
10 – Almost Guaranteed
9 – Incredibly Likely
8 – Very Likely
7 – Likely
6 – Foreseeable
5 – Possible
4 – Might be Possible
3 – Unlikely
2 – Probably Not
1 – In Our Dreams
Take a look at the predictions along with our rationale below:
10. Oboro Muramasa playable, dated for 2009 near-simultaneous release in Japan and North America
We’ve seen it at Nintendo’s presser. We’ve heard about it in Nintendo Power. Oboro Muramasa is a sneaky title, but it’s got to be closer to release than farther. The gameplay we were shown at Nintendo’s presser indicates that the game is indeed playable in at least some beta form, so here’s expecting some hands-on time with Vanillaware’s next wonderfully artistic creation. Also, due to Marvelous and XSEED’s recent partnership and their efforts to bring North American and Japanese releases closer together, I think we can expect to have Muramasa within a month or two of our Japanese compatriots.
9. Square Enix teases Final Fantasy Versus XIII, offers no release date
I don’t mind hype for a game, but the Final Fantasy XIIIs are a little bit ridiculous. How many years have they been showing us the same damn footage, only to give us the middle finger when we ask about gameplay or an estimated release date? Too many years, that’s how long.
Well, don’t expect Square Enix to turn over a new leaf this year. FFXIII proper may get more official treatment, but Versus will remain as obscure and elusive as ever, with Square Enix declining to comment more than anything. Oh, and a couple more seconds of the trailer to be revealed. Yes, this gets you excited for some reason.
8. Namco Bandai announces Sword of Legendia for 2009 release
We know that Namco Bandai is going to release the next Tales of game (after Tales of Hearts) on the Wii, but we don’t know exactly what that game will be. It is supposedly a main series title (unlike ToS2), but not even a title has been announced. My thoughts are that it could be the elusive “Sword of Legendia” title that was announced since Wii launch but has fallen silent.
I expect a renaming of some degree (perhaps Tales of Legendia 2?) and some sort of waggle feature. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
7. Mistwalker announces Blue Dragon 2 for 2009 simultaneous release in Japan and North America
I have a little bit of confidence in this prediction. Sensui says “more big RPGs on 360 in Japan,” and when someone high up in Microsoft says something, they’ve usually got something to back it up with. Blue Dragon 2 could definitely be that something. The original BD is currently the 3rd fastest selling game on 360 in Japan (knocked out of first by Tales of Vesperia and Infinite Undiscovery), so its follow-up is inevitable. Here’s hoping its story is not as slow moving as its predecessor.
6. Sony announces White Knight Story for North American release in mid-2009
We already know Level 5’s White Knight Story will be playable at TGS, and we also know that it will be released this holiday in Japan, but we don’t know anything beyond that. When will it see a North American or European release, if at all? Will Sony be handling it, or will some other publisher step up to deal with localization? We don’t know, and Sony of America certainly hasn’t had anything to say on the matter. Whether Sony will announce the first big name RPG on their newest console for non-Japanese audiences or not remains to be seen, but here’s to crossing fingers.
5. Namco Bandai announces new RPG for Xbox 360
Namco Bandai has been behind the Xbox 360 for a while now, and has released two rather big RPGs (one moderately-sized, and one megaton) for the 360 in two years, and has certainly seen a positive response to Tales of Vesperia. I would imagine that they have some new RPG in the works for 2009 as well, but I just don’t know what it is and when they will announce it. TGS seems plausible, but Microsoft might convince them to hold off on the announcement until later. The game could be Xenosaga IV (which would be really cool), but it is more likely a new IP.
4. Square Enix announces new RPG for Xbox 360
Now, it says “Square Enix,” but if this truly is a new RPG for Xbox 360, it seems more likely to me that the game will actually be developed by one of their partners, like tri-Ace or GameArts. My best guess would be either a new Valkyrie Profile game or a new Grandia entry. The Grandia option seems more likely to me at the moment simply because tri-Ace has been so much more obviously busy than GameArts. However, Toga wo Seou Mono’s Producer’s comments about a new VP on a different platform is certainly interesting food for thought. Really, I could see it going either way here.
3. Sega announces multiplatform console RPG
Sega has been a DS RPG announcing machine as of late, so I don’t have a lot of confidence in this prediction. However, their Xbox 360/PlayStation 3 showing list is noticeably small. There have been rumors flying around for a while that a sequel to Skies of Arcadia is due for an announcement (I’m not sure about this as each rumor claims a different console and the original’s director, Kodama-san, is working on 7th Dragon). Either way, Sega Japan has been rather lazy regarding actual consoles, but there has to be something in development, right? …Right?
2. Square Enix announces Final Fantasy XIII for Xbox 360 in Japan
What kind of a prediction list would it be if this wasn’t mentioned?
With a new guy going on record every week saying “No Final Fantasy XIII on Xbox 360 in Japan,” I am starting to wonder what the deal is. Shouldn’t they just have said it once, and then we can all believe them?
With Xboxes finally moving in Japan, and at a much more accessible price than its competition, Square Enix would have to have rocks for brains to release this in North America and Europe but not in Japan.
It could be simultaneous with the PS3 release, or (more likely), could be a timed-exclusive in some form (like an “international” version). Either way, I can’t see this not happening. Though its announcement at TGS is 50/50 in my opinion.
1. Mistwalker announces Cry On for 2009 simultaneous release in Japan and North America
I can’t put any faith in this prediction, though I really want it to happen. However, given AQ Interactive’s current financial situation, their notable absence from the list of TGS attendees, and Sakaguchi’s blog stating that he is working on an RPG that he can safely call “next gen” but can’t seem to get the gameplay how he likes it, my most honest speculation is that we have probably another 6 months or so before we hear about this elusive beast. I really hope I’m wrong and it gets announced. I just can’t bring myself to move it higher on the list.
I’m like, trying to will it into happening.
As with every trade show, no one can fully predict the future (which makes trying all the more fun). Our predictions are based on our experience and understanding of the game industry (particularly regarding the RPG genre), but are, of course, little more than educated guesses. (In other words, if we made a prediction that rubs you the wrong way, don't get all pissy. They're just guesses.)
We'll be keeping a close eye on the events surrounding Tokyo Game Show, and will be revisiting these predictions to score ourselves after the show is over for another year.
Have a fun TGS!
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